The Crash is Coming

Dear Friends,

I joined Indus in August 07, and i joined this other site a year before Indus.And these days i post the same posts at both places.


this blog which is posted below, was posted by me on 13th Feb 07, a phopecy of mine, of the things to come.

I wrote about the coming doom, when the markets were going up and up, and in geb 07, the sensex was 15000 and going upwards.

I received a lot of brickbats in the comments there, as they said u dont know anything about economics.Well frankly i am an uneducated person, i am not even a graduate.That is very true.Also what is true, is that i am a very ordinary person, as u can make out from my blogs.

I dont have any stories to make and tell, or suspense thrillers,i only write about what has happened in my life, and about what i see around me.

Here what i observed was Greed, everything was haywire.Prices were rising of everything, for no known reasons.This is what got me suspicious that something will give way very soon, but even i did not anticipate the scale of the Financial Sunami that has come about.

And 09 and 10 will be very very bad.And i think the next to bust may be ICICI Bank,of which i have been hearing strong rumours of their NPA's but i hope i am wrong.

So look what Nostradamus Junior, that is Kamalji wrote 2 years back.

Sit back and tighten your seat belts please

I cant post this link here, of the other site, as it is not ethical, but those who knowmy site, can go, and have a look, the date andyear is there right at the top of the blog there.






The Crash is Coming
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India looks so rosy today.Everything is zooming.Land prices,Share Markets,Gold prices,Salaries,Vegetable prices all are touching the Sky.According to the Industry experts, there is no looking back.Share Markets have touched theuir highest ever, as also Land and flat prices.

But there are many aspects that are disturbing.Call me the "Prophet of Doom ", a pessimist,or whatever,I feel this is all hyped up,and somebody is making a killing.May I put forward my views on why I feel so.Here goes


1) Land and Flat Rates :- Have a million homeless people come from Bangladesh,that there is a shortage of houses,and hence we need so many buildings to come up,for land to be grabbed up at any price,and for flates to be sold atastronomical rates?Or our population has exploded,or money is coming down the skies,that people are rushing to buy what they can land their hands on?


Lower Parel,the mill area of one time,mmy Dad bought an office there in the late Sixties.We used to be ashamed to tell anyone that we work at Lower Parel.Today, we are proud of it.Some of the poshest buildings are coming up there at very expensive rates.And when you look outside the apartments,all you will see are narrow lanes,Chawls,and hutments with people shitting all around.We still have the office there,and people say we are lucky.No, my dad was farsighted enough that 40 years back he had the forsight.


Share Prices - In one year alone certain shares have gone up many times,what have they done so special.Here is a list of some of them.
ICICI - 440 - 1000 250%
idbi 50 110 100%
Kotak Mah bank 210 - 529
Sail 55 118
Century Textiles 260 - 780

All hyped up rates,with no basis.I read somewehre that Indian shares are the most expensive in the world at PE of 22.

Right now everyone says the stock market is poised for 20,000 , but me thinks in the next 2 years this will come down to the levels of 6000, which i think is the real price.Lets see.

Bank Loans - This is one reason too for the prices to rocket.Low interest rates,banks pursuing you ,income tax rebate,are some reasons.Today more than 90% of properties are bought on loans.A Banker recently told me,RBI has been warning them of overexposure to this sector,and he said if banks stopped financing Homes, everything would collapse like a pack of cards.All property prices will come crashing down,and people dont have the money in the pockets.They are banking on Banklsmoney and their own future earnings,and any downturn in economy or a world war,and boy u will have doomsday for sure.


With USA and Iran showdown already begun,you never know whats next.

Swiss Money is Coming In - There are rumours that USA has warned Swiss Banks to freeze money in their Banks,and give them the names of the account holders,as USA suspects that it is terrorist money.The Swiss says this is business money,but definetly not terror money.So the Swiss have told their account holders to take out their money,before it is freezed by the STATES.This money is now being channalised through Mauritius Route, and coming in as white, and chasing any peice of land or shares that it can lay its hands on.It is hot money of the politicnas and business men that is coming in the country now,post the 9/11 scenerio,and this is what is hiking up the rates.


Since everyone is minting the moolah,why blame the Farmer for the little more that he gets for his produce of onions and apples.You all have minted money too,why crib over shelling out a little for the onions.Let the Farmer laught a little bit.


I dont have a single rupee invested in Lands or Shares right now.If the fall comes, I dread to think of the recuppersions.Sharad Pawar is crying for the suicide of the few hundred farmers of Vidarba,and in the crash,we will be mouring the death of millions of intelligent

persons,who have bought things today on loan to pay back in installments based on future earnings.

Amen.

Kamal

 

Dear Sonali,

Dont worry about yr investment in ICICI.The govt will take it over, or tell SBI to take it over, and the depositers will be safe so dont u worry.

See iof ICICI defaults and Govt does not do anything to save the depositers, the next day , no one will go to work, and everyone will go and withdraw their money from all the private Banks,. and once all people line up to take out money,That Bank will go down under immediatley.

the govt will not let that happen, so dont u worry.But i think the Bank is in trouble, i have been hearing a lot of things about it.

Even if u get a percentage less for the FD's, please please invest in Nationalized Banks,

Regards.

kamal

 

Dear Sri,

I doubt any body will listen to a novice like me, when greed takes hold of a person, he cant see reason.Same like a drunk person.

And i predict good days back again, say in 3 years from now, when everything aout this time, will be forgotton like a bad dream, but there will be no lessons learnt, that hard money comes the hard and slow way, and getting rich fquickly, theat money will go away quickly too.Big Laugh

But whom to explain.

One thing good about blogs is that u can tell the world, see i predicted this event, in so and so blog of mine, u can see the date of posting, and the year.and that is what i am doing now.Big Laugh

Regards.kamal

 

Dear Sharda,

Things do look bad right now, as all the software companies are dependent on the West for business, so any downturn there is bad for us.

Yes u will see a lot of jobs in yr industry going, so the ebst thing i would advise is to hold on to all the cash u have, and prostpone all ideas of a foreign holdiay or a new Car, for the time being, survival is more important today.

We have to brace ourselves for the coming Tsunami which will be bad.
things should imprvoe in the next 2 to 3 years, when the upswing will come back, as are the cycles of life, and this all of the present, will be forgotton like a bad dream,but no one will learn anything from this down turn, as greed gets hole of people.

But dont be pessimist, lets take this in our stride, and we must make sure, we work harder, so that we are thelast to be thrown out, that is in case the company closes down.

Cheer up Sharada, and dont take me too seriously, i am just pointing out, that u or me are not insulated from the problems of the world,.all of us are involved in some way or the other, we had better tighten our seat belts.

All the best.Regards.kamal

 

dear Vaidehi,

I know someone in Mumbay who sold his two bedroom house,for 1.50 crores, and bought a 3 bedroom one for 2.75 a few years back.

1.25 crores for an extra room? Ridiculous to say theleast.and hemust now be servicing the bank loan of a crore, and bleeding right now.

Yes lets bless everyone.Thanks for te visist Vaidehi.

Regards.kamal