25th January 2013, 09:25 PM #1
Intelligence Brief : Crime against women to Increase 300 % in India ... by 2018
After the brutal Delhi rape welooked at Census and Un-Employment data to explain why things aregetting so dangerous for women in India.
Our findings are in the form of the article( Link below ) which goes into issues that no analyst has written about.The data reveals two different and distinct behaviour patterns based ondifferent contextual backgrounds.
Very briefly … our analysis indicates that at a macro level crime in India ( mostly theft ) is set to riseby between 300 % - 500 %by 2018.This is mainly because by 2018, over 200 Million young people are expected to enterthe working age group and there are currently no jobs planned for thesepeople. This will greatly add to the problem of the 112 Millionalready un-employed in India.
We are not saying that all the 200Million young people coming into the working age group are potential criminals,What we are saying however is that globally there is a fair correlationbetween unemployment and theft ... so with rapidly rising unemployment itis expected that the cases of theft will also rise sharply in India.This is already happening ( increased incidents of chain snatchings, robbingthe elderly etc ) .
The observation however is that thenumber of rape cases is also rising sharply in India and that they are gettingincreasingly brutal. This cannot be explained byjust a rise in unemployment as rape implies extrememoral turpitude.
Primary Reason for Increasing RapeCases in India
One could imagine that the skewedsex ratio that we currently have in India would create difficulties foryoung men in finding a marriage partner. But even a skewed sex ratio cannotby any stretch of imagination be responsible for with what we are witnessing inIndia ( i.e Brutal Gang Assault ) on females of all ages ranging from 2monthsto 70 year olds .
What then might be responsible forrising rape , if it is not rising unemployment and a skewed sex ratio ?
A hint of the truthis visible if we go into the backgrounds of the rapists involved in the recentcase in Delhi. We think that it is not a mere coincidencethat all the Delhi case rapists were from one particular area with very poor secondary school capacity and the lowest teacher quality.
Planning Commission data revealsthat there is a huge shortage of 5,00,000 ( 5 lakh ) Secondary schoolsacross India. A 2007 NUEPA ( NationalInstitute of Educational Planning and Administration) reportin addition also reveals that only 46% of teachers in India have passedtheir class XII exams. In Bihar only 21 % of teachers have studiedbeyond class X.
Given this hard data , it appearsthat both an acute shortage of secondary schools and very poor teacher qualityhave combined to destroy the national system of values that we had, themost fundamental of which is respect for women as equals.
Specifically , then we ask " Has poor teacher Quality amid a huge shortage ofSecondary Schools, have something to do with the increasing cases of Rape inIndia as also their brutality ? "
I. Expecta 300 % increase in Rape Cases also
There is a definite link between ( Shortage of Secondary Schools+ Poor Teacher Quality ) and increasing incidents of rape. We also believe thatcrimes against women ( Including Rape ) will rise at nearly the same rate astheft, mainly due to the huge fall in Teacher Quality in India. In fact we believe that by 2018 -2020 India might well be themost dangerous place on earth for women.
II. Fixing Responsibility for a rise in Crime and Rape inIndia
A second question thenarises.
Are the Police and aslow judicial process responsible for a rise in rape ? This is an importantquestionbecause in the recent case everyone was blaming the police and theslow judicial process.
Our view here again isthat the Police and the slow Judicial system may be responsible for just 10% of the problem. They are in fact fighting an uphill battle against thefirst symptoms of a Giant Tsunami of crime that will hit India by 2018.
The real reasons forrising rape lie elsewhere ... in Yojana Bhavan ( Planning Commission) and the Ministry of HRD ( Shastri Bhavan ) in New Delhi.
It is quite clear thatsoon after the 2001 census, the Planning Commission and the Ministry of HRD /PMO in general were fully aware that there had been a huge increase in thePopulation in the period 1998 - 2001. By 2004 - 05 there was no doubt and itwas indeed public knowledge that a " demographic supernova " had gone off in India circa 1998– 2001 and was beginningto loudly announce itself in the then 7- 11 year segment of the population.
The Planning Commission, the Ministry of HRD and the PMO musthave realized that their actions starting in 2004 - 05 would be critical. Butthe fact is ... they did absolutely nothing on two specific counts :
1.They did not initiate a single, sustainable employmentgeneration project for the next 8years ... that could employ even afraction of the 200 Millionyoung people that they knew would join theworkforce by 2018
2.They did not do anything about building more secondary schools... so over 150 Million children dropped out of school after class V ...because there were noschools to go to.
III. Identificationof the Epicenter of rising crime and rape in India :
1. An indifferent Planning Commission is the defacto "Epicenter"ofthe problem of rising crime in India ( including rape ) and its in-actioninthe matter of project initiation over the last 8 years has causedimmense damage.
2. Both the Planning Commission and the all important Ministryof HRDfailed miserably in their responsibility to initiate projects tobuild more secondary schools and specifically to create schemes thatwould make theteaching career more attractive. Due to this incompetence, India is paying a very heavy price in terms of loss of GDP and lawlessnessbecause both these organizations went to deep sleep in 2004 – 05.
The Ministry of HRDneeds to explain why it did not see the need to build more secondary schoolsandhelp the state Governments with funding when they were aware that India wasshort of 5 lakh secondary schools.
The Money was therebut still they did nothing. The World Bank andthe Asian Development Bank had cleared US $ 15.6 Billion in financing in2005-07 for development projects for India ... but this money was not evenlifted. In fact India has been paying a Rs 250 Crore commitment charge eachyear ... but is not lifting this money.
Today, the Government is telling usthat FDI in retail will generate just 10 Million jobs and calling it abig achievement , the truth however is that this is nowhere near the askingrate.
IV. Possible solutions :
Given the above facts, there could be a slight shiftin the forecast for a dramatic rise in crime ...maybe 2018 could become 2020.This means that India's course appears to be set " in concrete " ...unless :
1. Pending Infrastructure projects with large employment potentialare cleared ... fast
2. A Massive Secondary Education Programme is launched ... immediately
From a Macro perspective, all we needed to do was to treat ourTeachers properly and make the Teaching profession a financially rewardingproposition for the young graduate. If we had done this we would have not onlyachieved all our GDP targets but also would have made India a more just societyfree of crime . All of this means that Making Teaching an attractivefinancial proposition is the cheapest way of fixing the Indian Economy.
V. Questions :
1.Can the fallout still be minimized if the Govt. acts ... evennow ??? ... We dont know ... We can only hope .
2. The killers in this particular (Delhi Rape ) case will hang ...but what about those in Government whohave made this country unsafe for our Mothers, Sisters , wifes and daughters.
YES ... Even our Mothers are nolonger safe...because they have started raping70 year olds as well.
Men and nations behavewisely once they have exhausted all the other alternatives - Abba Eban
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