Could dollar fall to Rs.30 and below??

Hi all,

For the last few months both me and my husband are having this discussion and sometimes heated argument about the above topic. I from a layman view, and my DH a finance guy. He has been telling me that there is more southwards to the dollar..which i have mentioned in the real estate thread also.

So now with huge analysis, discussions going on in all the business channels, and few of my friends trying to park their saving in india..what is your take on this...

Stanchart has predicted a rupee strengthening and dollar falling to Rs.30...in the next few years......

this is the report..from news at hindustan times....dated 02/12/06....

Gerard Lyons, chief economist and group head (global research), Standard Chartered, believes the rupee will maintain its unrelenting march and possibly climb to Rs 30 to a dollar in the next five years.


"The rupee could hit Rs 30 to a dollar in the next five years. India needs to raise about $500 billion for its infrastructure, a major chunk of which will come from overseas. India needs to think about the rupee, not just against the dollar, but more against a whole basket of currencies," Lyons said at the India Economic Summit 2007, organised by the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) and the World Economic Forum, here on Sunday.


The rupee has surged in value against the dollar by 15.1 per cent since October 2006.
"Appreciation of the rupee is definitely a sign of the growth of the economy. But if it is not tackled soon, it may give rise to inflation," Lyons said.


Last week, Finance Minister P Chidambaram said the rupee's rise had put pressure on export sectors, particularly those with low import intensity such as leather, textiles, handicrafts and marine products. Rahul Bajaj, chairman, Bajaj Auto, said that it was imperative to address the issues of job losses and falling export earnings due to a strong rupee. "The main reason behind the appreciation is hot money, which needs to be tackled," Bajaj said.
Stephen Roach, chief economist and chairman (Asia), Morgan Stanley, said the US economy was in the midst of a serious sub-prime crisis and it could have an impact on other economies across the world.


Let us discuss, both in depth and also our different views and perspectives......

Hi Shanthi,
My view is Rupee should become transparent. Indian government should open up the currency for free move. If the economy grows well as it is now. may be we can see Rupee <30/$ by 2015..not any time in near future..I could be wrong!
Tulasi

Dear Shan,

Yesterday, I read an article stating that by end of May / June 08... Dollar will touch Rs.35/- levels... If that happens.... it is a stragiht drop of over 25% over 1-2 yrs....

The drop in USD is due to double effect... One the Indian economy is growing and second the US economy is going down... The US economy... going up in the short span is very highly unlikely...

So... Five years is too long a span you have quoted....